Thank you for your articles on Windsor Real Estate. There are a few issues that affect reporting on the market values.
Our Real Estate Association uses a "mean" average. There are three legal averages, Mean, Mode, and Medium. A more correct way to report would be the Medium which is the middle number in the pack. For example, if there were 101 sales in a month the Medium Average would be the 51st with 50 being sold higher, and 50 being sold lower.
Using the same example that month a few years back may have had one sale in excess of $1 million and one sale less than $100,000 with all three averages being at or very close to each other at $280,000.
Now imagine the next month had 5 sales over $1Million one of which was $10 Million and still only one sale under $100,000. Our Realtor organization may report the mean average jumped to $380,000 but in reality, the typical or the middle of the pack houses may have stayed pretty close to the $280,000 mark. The numbers may be available to you at the Windsor Essex Board of Realtors for recalculation of a Medium Average.
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Another number that I can not get a hold of is the number of new housing units built, being built, and planned to be built with applications for zoning or permits. My best guess from reading is that there are about 7,000 new housing units in Windsor for 2000 & 2001. I have requested numbers from the builders association and from the chamber of commerce with never a response. As a reporter, you may be able to get this very important set of numbers. At some level, all housing competes with each other. The basic economic law is demand and supply; ie a housing shortage vs an oversupply. Even when the new units might be rental apartments, the law of economics will apply. For example, my son is in London U.K. His budget for housing might be L1,500 (pounds) which is $2,560 Canadian per month. If he were to buy a 1,200 square foot condo or house with 20% down it would be a substandard wreck or he would have to settle for a tiny 700 sq foot residence. But if he rents for L1,500 pounds then he gets a respectable standard of living 1,200 sq foot apartment. Bottom line is that it is better to rent than own in an overheated market not to mention saving the 20% down.
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Please do research the number of new construction houses, condos, apartments, mobile homesites, and other "Residential NEW housing" units in Windsor and or Essex County for years 2020, 2021, and planned for 2022. This may be the key factor in determining the future market for the medium average house. In Windsor, we seem not to build enough until the market is in a severe shortage and then we build way too much until the market is oversupplied.
Thank you for your excellent reporting, please let me know if I can help, and do please share your findings.
Tom
